Germany's Power Generation Trends: A Data-Driven Analysis

Germany's energy production landscape between 2020 and 2024 reveals clear seasonal patterns, a gradual transition towards renewables, and significant shifts in the overall energy mix. This period was marked by the phasing out of nuclear power and fluctuating contributions from fossil fuels and renewable sources. A detailed breakdown of trends provides insight into how energy generation evolved across different sources.

Monthly Energy Production Trends (2020-2024)

An analysis of average monthly energy production from 2020 to 2024 shows distinct seasonal variations in total power generation and the relative contributions of different sources.

• Total Production Trends: On average, Germany produced 46 terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity in January, which was 32% higher than the June average of 35 TWh. This reflects both higher energy demand during the colder months and variations in renewable generation.

• Onshore Wind: One of the most variable contributors, onshore wind energy accounted for 31% of Germany’s electricity in February, averaging 13.5 TWh, but dropped to just 13% in June, producing 4.6 TWh. This seasonal variation aligns with stronger winter winds and reduced summer wind activity.

• Solar Power: In contrast to wind, solar power’s contribution was minimal in winter, making up only 2% of the mix in January (1 TWh). However, by June, it accounted for 22% of total generation (7.7 TWh), demonstrating its peak efficiency during summer.

• Biomass: Unlike wind and solar, biomass production remained steady throughout the period, contributing 7-8% of total generation without seasonal fluctuations.

• Fossil Fuels:

  • Lignite consistently provided 15-20% of Germany’s electricity supply.

  • Natural gas contributed between 10-14%, reflecting its role as a flexible backup energy source.

  • Coal fluctuated between 6-12%, with its role gradually diminishing as renewables expanded.

• Offshore Wind: Unlike onshore wind, offshore wind’s production was less volatile but still showed seasonal variation, contributing 4% of the mix in summer and increasing to 7% in winter.

Hourly Energy Production Patterns in 2024

A closer look at hourly electricity generation in 2024 provides further insights into how different energy sources perform at various times of the day and across seasons.

• January:

  • Energy production fluctuated between 1.6 TWh at midnight and peaked at 2 TWh around noon, marking a 28% swing in production throughout the day.

  • Solar energy had minimal impact, contributing at most 14% at peak hours and 0% during nighttime.

• July:

  • The daily production range was more extreme, from 1 TWh at midnight to 1.8 TWh at noon, an 80% swing in output.

  • Solar energy was the dominant daytime contributor, with its peak share reaching 57%, further emphasizing its seasonal significance.

These daily trends reinforce the complementary nature of solar and wind energy. Wind energy, particularly offshore, remains more stable, whereas solar exhibits sharp midday peaks but is absent at night.

Time Series Analysis (2022-2024): Long-Term Shifts

Germany’s energy mix saw some critical long-term transformations, particularly in total energy production and the decline of nuclear energy.

• Nuclear Phase-Out:

  • The last nuclear power plant was shut down in April 2023, marking the end of nuclear energy production in Germany. This led to a reconfiguration of the energy mix, increasing reliance on renewables and, in some cases, fossil fuels for grid stability.

• Total Energy Production in January (Yearly Comparison):

  • 2020: 48.9 TWh

  • 2021: 47.0 TWh

  • 2022: 48.3 TWh

  • 2023: 44.4 TWh

  • 2024: 44.3 TWh

  • There is a clear decline in January production, reflecting increased efficiency, changing consumption patterns, and gradual shifts in generation sources.

• Total Energy Production in June (Yearly Comparison):

  • 2020: 36 TWh

  • 2021: 39 TWh

  • 2022: 36.7 TWh

  • 2023: 32.4 TWh

  • 2024: 32.1 TWh

  • A similar downtrend is visible, particularly from 2022 onward, which aligns with Germany’s continued transition away from fossil fuels and reduced industrial energy consumption.

Key Takeaways

• Seasonal Variation is Dominant: Germany’s energy production fluctuates significantly between winter and summer, with wind playing a larger role in colder months and solar taking over in summer.

• Wind and Solar Complementarity: Onshore wind shows strong winter dominance, while solar energy peaks in summer, reinforcing their complementary roles.

• Stable Biomass and Fossil Fuel Contribution: Biomass remains steady, while lignite, coal, and natural gas exhibit mild fluctuations within predictable ranges.

• Long-Term Decline in Energy Production: Both January and June energy production figures show a downward trend from 2020 to 2024, likely due to energy efficiency measures and industrial transitions.

• Impact of Nuclear Phase-Out: The removal of nuclear power in 2023 has contributed to adjustments in the energy mix, increasing reliance on renewables and, to some extent, fossil fuel backups.

  
  

Germany’s energy production from 2020 to 2024 provides a clear picture of how seasonal and long-term trends interact in shaping the country’s power supply. As the energy transition continues, these patterns will be crucial for managing grid stability and optimizing renewable integration.

Data source: SMARD Market Data